Written directly after Season 7, Episode 4. Posted an hour before Season 7, Episode 6 aired.
Predicting the Future of Game of Thrones
The audience knows the future of Game of Thrones, and has since Season Four and before.
How? Visions.
There are two important shots from Bran’s visions which are important. It’s fairly obvious that one of them, if not both, happen in the future.
The first of the two is the image of the shadow of a dragon, probably Drogon, over King’s Landing. This could be a historic call to a time when the Targaryen’s with dragons were rulers of King’s Landing many years ago.
However, it seems likely that the vision was actually a setup for a Season 7 payoff - Dany’s taking over King’s Landing with dragons.
So far, in Season 7, there has been a longstanding question of whether Dany will or will not use her Dragon’s to take Queen’s Landing.
Her feeling up to the end of S7E4 - based on her following the advice of Tyrion and Jon Snow - is that she cannot take King’s Landing or the Red Keep using her dragons and the Dothraki because it will look like foreign invaders are taking the country and be a rallying call for the remaining houses of Westeros. More importantly, it will be a slaughter - mostly of innocent people - and make her no different from the rulers she says she wants to be better than. It will take away the hope of the people that she, the mother of dragons, will lead them to any better a life than they had under the last kings and queens.
Dany is set up therefore to only use her dragons if she either (1) needs to because her other options are destroyed - or because (2) she no longer cares about those ideals that held her back – for example, if she wants revenge.
Needs to because her other options are destroyed
Right now, as of S7E4, Cersei has several mentioned and known options for severely damaging Dany’s army:
Against dragons:
-Scorpions / bastille bows?
Against the Dothraki:
-The Golden Company from Essos and other mercenaries bought with the backing of the Iron Bank of Braavos, brought across the Iron Sea on their own ships or by Euron Greyjoy
Against the Unsullied:
-Euron Greyjoy seems to have already taken most of the Unsullied by sinking the ships they were on when they sailed to attack Casterly Rock, home of the Lannisters.
If with the backing of the largest bank in the known world of Game of Thrones, Cersei can defeat the Dothraki armies, who are not used to the Westerosi environment or weapons (their first battle was in the fields, more like the environment of their home, the Dothraki Sea, but they know no castles), it may be that Dany’s armies are largely destroyed but she has to rely on her dragons to win.
It’s quite possible that the Scorpions will be the least effective of these weapons and kills only one of Dany’s dragons, or, less likely in my opinion for reasons I’ll get into below, none. This would leave Dany’s dragons as the way to win her war against Cersei, which she knew from the start was her greatest advantage but wasn’t willing to use.
(2) She no longer cares about those ideals that held her back – for example, if she wants revenge.
The way that someone stops caring about those ideals that were holding her back is if Cersei and Cersei’s army takes something from Dany - a life - she finds deeply important and cares too much about to respond in a measured way.
None of her advisors except Jorah might qualify. She likes them and respects them but would not be devastated and vengeful, unwilling to compromise or listen to reason, if Cersei’s army killed Greyworm, Missandei, Tyrion, or other key advisors and figures.
Only Jorah does she love. But even Jorah, she may not rekindle a deeper love with. (Though it is possible - and would make sensible and good storytelling - if Jorah was the one whose love story with Dany developed. Jon and Dany’s love story would be misleading like Luke and Leia, as they turn out to be relatives - though differently here, the world of House Targaryen is known for imarriage
Dany has only had two real loves so far: Khal Drogo and her children, her dragons.
One can remember her love for Khal Drogo most clearly perhaps in her vision in the House of the Undying - an important vision we will return to later in this post - where she hallucinates seeing him again. However, Dany has become strong, a conquering queen, and even known other men semi-romantically, in the seasons since, with little memory of Khal Drogo and Dany’s love in the audience’s mind. Only Dany’s love of the Dothraki in general are of relevance, a sublimated love of Drogo perhaps in part; if the Golden Company or others wiped out the Dothraki horde, that would perhaps be able to inspire irrepressible vengeance.
However, nothing can anger a woman like hurting her children. We’ve already seen that - vengeance for the deaths of her children - as the central motivation for Cersei herself to go from a bitch to a brute, become a monster and master of monsters (the undead Mountain). She expresses this as the reason for her brutal punishment of the Ellaria Sand and Sand’s favorite daughter.
Dany has remained the mother of dragons. We have witnessed over the entire series her dragons hatch and grow to their adult size by Season 7. If Dany saw one of them killed by Cersei’s army and orders, Dany might take vengeance regardless of whether or not Tyrion or others.
The scorpions also offer a way to kill her dragons. If they were set up as prominently in Season 7 as they have been to never kill a dragon, they would be wasted space. They would only serve as a red herring, to retain artificial tension by presenting the possibility that Cersei might win and that the “scales” of battle remain close to even, the outcome not certain.
Instead, it seems that the writers will not be satisfied with such artificial tension after all the build up. At least one of Dany’s dragons must die. That is the emotional pay-off to the plentiful airtime given to the Scorpions.
It’s possible that in S7E4, we already saw this event happen, which was part of why the scene was given such glory and art - and the budget that must have been required for all the men on fire, CGI so good it almost made me ask how they trained the dragon to act so well on command, and the many angles on many battling extras. The epic - in what little original sense of the word is accessible in 2017, after years of its use in slang - finale to S7E4 showed Braun of the Blackwater hit Dany’s dragon and Dany pulling the bolt out of her dragon. While the dragon was still breathing and protected Dany from Jaime’s attack, it’s possible that we will see S7E4 begin with Dany’s dragon dying in her arms before Dany angrily proclaims victory over the remnants of the Lannister army.
After the death of one dragon, Dany might be willing to attack the Red Keep and cut off the head of the enemy. She also might feel more threatened - like it is more necessary to finish the war by whatever means necessary, and quickly, now that her three major Westerosi allies are defeated, her dragons do not ensure her eventual victory, and - though probably it won’t be mentioned - more scorpions are built in King’s Landing.
This also might be a way to - after everything - turn us as an audience against Dany after building her up as one of the two central heroes. How? The writers have set up Dany’s main moral choice as whether or not to kill civilians and burn the Red Keep and King’s Landing.
Tyrion has set this up as the moral meaning of whether or not to attack the Red Keep with dragons. Dany herself has expressed this as the moral meaning of the decision, in response to Olenna Tyrell in S7E2. Jon sets this up as the moral meaning of the decision in S7E4, when Dany asks his advice on whether or not to attack the Red Keep while they are on the beaches of Dragonstone with their advisors.
If Dany decides to attack the Red Keep with dragons, it will be a major divergence from her and her adviser's original principles. In fact, it will be the only morally interesting way to move forward with the season, so far as I can tell, and retain some of the moral complication that Game of Thrones is so famous and well-loved for in its earlier seasons. The moral ambiguity started to fall away in Season 6 with clearer heroes and villains in Jon Snow and Ramsay Bolton in the Battle of the Bastards. For GoT retain this quality - perhaps the essential quality of GoT’s literary greatness, its ability to turn on a dime with its most beloved characters, to represent its fictional reality as chaotic like.
Dany is still at play. She could go either way. Conflict could come from how she and the others will face Cersei, Euron, and the White Walkers or conflict could come from that and from Dany’s own mistaken moral choice.
To quote the Three-Eyed Raven, S7E4, to Littlefinger: “Chaos is a ladder.” We’re not at the most chaotic rungs yet. There is over ten hours of story left - and GoT has shown how much it can make happen in one. There are many major characters left at play who need room to grow - like Littlefinger - room that might not be there while Dany is. It does leave a question that’s hard to answer: is this a story of the Starks more than Dany, and has it always been? Will it end with the new generation of Starks with or without Dany fighting the long Winter their father warned them about since Season 1, Episode 1.
In favor of Dany not doing this, tragedy tends to come from a tragic hero being mostly good with a major flaw that leads to their total downfall, even though we see that flaw in some way in most of ourselves. E.g. Hubris. Dany’s flaw is probably not ruthlessness. It’s not clear that the writers have given many - or any - flaws to Dany in a long time. Dany’s arc started with the flaw of naivety and weakness but now Dany has become the most powerful woman in Westeros. However, perhaps the tragedy is that she wants to be Queen of the Seven Kingdoms, and can’t let that go. That’s why she won’t help Jon unless he bends the knee. That’s why she is focused on destroying Cersei and taking the Iron Throne instead of saving Westeros.That’s why she may attack the Red Keep if her armies and allies are nearly defeated and making the “wrong” moral choice - as set up so far by the honorable characters - will be a choice she might make.
Evidence in support of the theory:
This is where we get to some of the evidence we have from visions and from the S7E4 battle.
So far there have been three major visions that might include subtle visions of the future.
Visions:
Dany in the House of the Undying, S2E10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gulVUWrADCM
Bran’s vision, S4E2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gh0-4hOzyw
Bran’s vision, S6E6
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjLGYqc-poc
When I talk about Dany’s vision in this post I will refer to her vision in the House of the Undying, particularly her walking through the wintry and empty Red Keep. When I talk about Bran’s vision in this post I will refer to his Season 4 vision, particularly snow falling over the iron throne and the shadow of a dragon over King’s Landing.
These are the only three images of relevance for my argument:
Dany walking through the empty throne room
Bran seeing snow fall in the empty throne room
Bran seeing the shadow of dragons over King’s Landing
There are many images in these visions that others have explained. However, I found it remarkable that even while doing some research on what others have said about this, I found nothing elaborating on the theories or parts that I am about to point out.
The two separate visions of the empty throne room from Dany and Bran’s visions provide very strong evidence that the Red Keep will be destroyed. These are images of the throne room empty and … destroyed.
This does not mean that Dany will attack the Red Keep.
There are really three options for how the Red Keep is destroyed.
Dany attacks the Red keep (out of “necessity” or revenge and anger)
The White Walkers attack the Red Keep
They attack King’s Landing as part of the battle of life and death for mankind (or at least Westeros… it’s unclear what happens to Essos if the White Walkers takes Westeros).
They win and the empty iron throne under snow is an image of the epilogue to the whole series of political intrigues; none of it mattered, no one got the Throne that it was all for, that distracted them from what killed them all.
A catch-all for other options outside my current model for what’s predictable to happen.
For example, Jon is fighting against the White Walkers but Sansa and Littlefinger attack the Red Keep. As Littlefinger advised her in S7E3, “Fight in the North. Fight in the South.” Plus, Arya, not Dany, is quite likely going to be the one to kill Cersei, to complete Arya’s series arc of killing the people on her list, of whom Cersei is, since Joffrey’s death, at the top. So there is plenty of reason to think Cersei’s story wouldn’t end at Dany’s hand with Dany burning the Red Keep and all those inside. (Though Dany could burn the Red Keep and Cersei could escape, allowing Arya to kill Cersei later.)
Note that King’s Landing and the Red Keep, along with Winterfell, is one of the two most established locations of importance in the Game of Thrones series. The final battles are likely to happen at these locations. My guess is that the final major battle - or massacre - of Season 7 Part I will happen when Dany burns the Red Keep. Enemy: Cersei and the Lannisters, plus their allies. The final major battle of Season 7 Part II might happen at Winterfell - but Winterfell is not attractive and might be too far North for the dramatic stakes to have risen far enough. Enemy: At least the White Walkers - perhaps also other forces like those of Littlefinger, the only character whose desire for power is established to be so strong that he could be using the end of the world to his advantage in human power games.
There is the possibility that the White Walkers might be the ones to attack King’s Landing and destroy the Red Keep. In both the visions of the empty and destroyed throne room, the throne room is covered in a light layer of snow. In Dany’s vision, when she walks out of the throne room, she is in a winter landscape.
Clearly, the image takes place during the coming Long Winter, which affects not only the North but also the South of Westeros. House Stark’s motto and other lore has set up the Long Winter since Season 1, Episode 1: “Winter is Coming”. This was the show’s slogan for marketing in its early days, and still today.
Presumably the White Walkers can only live and attack in cold environments. I’m not an expert in the lore that already exists related to this but I would speculate it that. This is given that it seems hard to imagine the icy White Walkers in warm climates, given that they seem like almost spirits of ice, live and withstand in the farthest North, past where humans have gone, don’t seem to need fire or respond well to it, and simply have an icy color scheme. If I’m wrong about them and their wights requiring cold weather, this doesn’t apply. But it seems like they either are part of what brings the Long Winter or that they have been preparing for their current attack and waiting for the current, coming Long Winter to enable it - to enable them to take their army south over all of Westeros, not only to attack the wall or the North.
Evidence that Dany attacks the Red Keep:
In S7E4, we finally see Dany use an adult dragon in a military battle. She uses her dragon to shoot pillars of fire across a linear path from above (at some angle). Often the path of the pillar of fire - the dragon’s breath - is continuous but there are breaks.
In Dany’s vision, the director makes sure to have Dany look up to see the ceiling of the Red Keep throne room.
The walls of the throne room are intact. The ceiling has been destroyed.
There are a few likely ways to destroy a ceiling like this.
Catapults
Wildfire
Dragons
If it were by catapults, first of all, there would be a much higher likelihood of the catapults hitting the walls, not only the ceiling. Maybe we are not seeing parts of the walls that are hit - but it looks like all the walls that come into the frame - even their high windows - are intact. Second, we see no evidence of any stones, missives, or other unevenness to the floor, nor any damage to the columns. If the damage is from catapults, where did the missives land once they went through the ceiling?
Evidence in favor of the damage being from catapults are that the ceiling damage is uneven, with holes separated by remaining beams. However, as audience members we don’t have anything approaching certainty that a pillar of fire from a dragon might not be similarly uneven.
Thematically, King’s Landing has been party to the fire in A Song of Ice and Fire, while ice dominates the North. The last major damage to the throne room also came from wildfire.
Wildfire has also come up twice already - Battle of the Blackwater and Season 6 Finale - and would not be hitting only the ceiling unless through catapults, like in the Battle of the Blackwater, but I have already given reasons why catapults are unlikely causes for the damage.
In Bran’s vision, the destruction of the Red Keep is more subtle but we know we are looking at the same Throne Room, with a destroyed roof. Unlike in Dany’s vision, it is snowing on the Iron Throne. If the roof were intact, we could not see the snow falling against Iron Throne and masking the floor.
This triangulates both of the visions’ images towards the idea of a damaged roof - of which there is only one reasonable cause of damage: dragons.
My guess? If I were writing Game of Thrones, it would be by a dragon ridden by Dany.
* * *
Tldr; I propose a theory for why Dany will attack the Red Keep with her dragons, thereby becoming a much more morally ambiguous character. and evidence. Why does it matter? Not only does she make the “bad” decision that has been set up through Season 7 Part I, she may even die as a consequence. This would be a great way to shock the audiences and regain stakes and complexity for the series even as we move into the closing sequence, as we start the last six episodes. It would give dramatic room and screen time now dominated by Dany for the remaining players - especially Sansa and Littlefinger - to rise dramatically to their potential and complicate the human power games. All the while, humanity prepares for and fights its final war with the Army of the Dead.